Crypto currencies or Be a Winner in the US Elections

There has been a lot of news about the recent US election, and after the Trump attacks, US President Biden announced his withdrawal over the weekend. The news could lead to a more volatile performance of US stocks, as the market will speculate on unlimited possibilities, including the competitiveness of the candidates, the latest developments in the US, the timing of the Fed's rate cuts will also be unknown, which will lead to the three major US stock indices $Dow Jones Indices (.DJI.US) $、 $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US)$und $Nasdaq Composite Index(.IXIC.US)$May show persistent and recent strong performance $Russell 2000 Index(.RUT.US)$The trend will also be complicated, and blindly hyping “Trump concept stocks” will also face a lot of risks.

However, there is one type of asset that is likely to benefit from this speculation process, namely cryptocurrencies. The author will discuss the current state of the market today with everyone.

Weak dollar seems to be a big trend regardless of who wins the US election

According to the latest news, U.S. President Biden has also announced his intention to endorse Vice President Kamala Harris (Hekingli/Harris) for the Democratic nomination. However, the above news may remain variable. Current Democratic leaders such as Pelosi and former President Obama have not expressed themselves. They believe that the main concern among Democrats is the lack of competitiveness of officials in the current administration. Despite the bullish performance of US stocks in four years, some public life issues such as high inflation and war The issue will have a significant impact on the election of the current administration, which is the main reason why Biden needs to withdraw from the election (his physical health condition may be, too, not to mention that).

So, with the current bullish Trump winning chances (after all, the mood is almost in favor of Trump after the shooting), and investment markets are beginning to speculate about how the environment will change after Trump takes office. From Trump's past speeches, the author said, it seems that the relevant direction will not necessarily be the next investment opportunity, but rather beware that the big direction may be some “protectionism” and “de-globalization.” Therefore, some recent US SME stocks that have lagged behind are showing signs of lagging behind, such as Russell 2000. But whether these companies really benefit from tariffs and protectionism in the long run doesn't seem to be proven historically. And the assets that best reflect the US election are $USD(USDindex.FX)$.

If the United States is “de-globalized” again in the future, it is most likely that demand for the dollar will fall, giving the US currency index a chance to weaken again, which is also in line with the direction Trump is helping the US manufacturing industry. The big prospect of increasing this “de-globalization” trend is that some cryptocurrencies are more beneficial in the long run than investing in SMEs in the US.

Cryptocurrency's Core Investment Logic 'Decentralized'

Why cryptocurrencies will be the biggest beneficiary, as the title suggests, is that the demand for decentralization will increase after the US elections. After all, if Trump were to take office, everyone would guess that the United States would “go global” again, which would leave many countries holding the dollar in an awkward position. But for investors in the coin circle, it is a trend and opportunity that the market's lower demand for the dollar will lead to an increase in demand for cryptocurrencies, especially those that are already mature and stable $ Bitcoin (BTC.CC) $und $ Ethereum (ETH.CC) $。 The former, supported by the concept of rarity, will likely perform better during the general election.

U.S. Election May Exist Variables, But Short-Term Weakness in the Short Term Is Unlikely

Of course, the above assumption is due to the current Trump mood, but after all, the US elections are almost three months away. In the context of the Trump campaign, it is difficult to say that even with the current high level of public opinion, it is difficult to say that even with the current high level of public opinion, it is difficult to say that he will win 100%. There is also the saying that “the ambition of a generation is endless”.。 But if the election is expected to change in the short term, it is also difficult to change the short-term weakness of the US dollar, so there will only be more uncertainty in the US economy, which has begun to weaken, and the risk of a US debt problem has not improved significantly so far. Whether the election will again involve debt ceiling issues and the risk of a government shutdown remains Unknowns, in addition to the process of the general election contest, believe that the bipartisan plan of electors does not move away from supporting vulnerable communities (increased spending) and decriminalizing geopolitics as the main issues, which will not change the landscape of the weakness of the US dollar. (This is one of the reasons why gold, precious metals, and energy prices have fallen recently.)

Increases the likelihood of Bitcoin breaking the top

In the process of investing in cryptocurrencies, the most beneficial has always been Bitcoin (btc). In the face of the big backdrop of weakening demand for the dollar, the increase in demand in line with the total supply of Bitcoin is set at 21 million, plus a halving of supply every four years, the scarcity of Bitcoin will further benefit the price performance. For investors in the US equity market, it is possible to directly purchase related ETFs e.g. $iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT.US)$Or twice as leveraged $2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF(BITX.US)$。 Investors in Hong Kong stocks can also look out for local ETFs such as $CSOP Bitcoin Futures ETF(03066.HK)$either $ChinaAMC Bitcoin ETF(03042.HK)$.

In addition, some related concept stocks are also worth watching for, such as the mining machinery business, which recently announced the delisting of shares $MicroStrategy(MSTR.US)$and earlier articles”U.S. stocks continue strong, not to be ignored in the second half ” Mentioned $Coinbase(COIN.US)$.

Without further ado, Futu will offer cryptocurrency trading services, and transactions of two cryptocurrencies BTC and ETH will be subject to regulatory compliance. The company will be leveraged to invest directly in BTC and ETH as a secure and reliable platform, with details likely to be followed in August and around the world. There will be relevant investment talks and home introductions and knowledge of cryptocurrencies in due course. If you want to know more about the latest details, please click on the link below.Crypto currency trading is coming! Futu's Big Four Deal Benefits to Protect Your Flight.

Chief Analyst of Futu Securities Liang

(The author is a license holder of the Securities Regulatory Commission, and its contacts do not have financial interests in the issuer of the proposed shares mentioned above)

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On this page

Weak dollar seems to be a big trend regardless of who wins the US election
Cryptocurrency's Core Investment Logic 'Decentralized'
U.S. Election May Exist Variables, But Short-Term Weakness in the Short Term Is Unlikely
Increases the likelihood of Bitcoin breaking the top