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Views 22182024.12.12

Bitcoin Trend Analysis | Break 0.1 million again, or is there a chance to take a hold?

Latest Bitcoin Trends

Bitcoin Trend Analysis Forecast for December 2024

The opinion of the authors on cryptocurrency movements remains optimistic, and the overall view is not as large as before. More recent news is worth discussing with everyone. One of the focus of the market is on December 5, $ Bitcoin (BTC.CC) $ After hitting an all-time high of $104,112 and then rebounding from the high, it plummeted slightly to $91808, although momentum soon stabilized, it also triggered investment markets to worry about Bitcoin's liquidity risks.

The Impact of Recent News on Bitcoin Analysis

Looking back on the news, hours after Bitcoin hit an all-time high, former US Treasurer Summers recently said there was no need to build a Bitcoin reserve and called the idea “crazy”. “Other than satisfying the interests of individual political sponsors, I don't see any benefit in setting up a national reserve of bitcoin,” he said during an outside interview. Considering that the US and Russia were driving prices to all-time highs with Bitcoin as a strategic reserve at the time, it was also inevitable to form a sell-off after the news emerged.

In addition to being a professor of economics at Harvard University, Summers is also a member of the Board of Directors of OpenAI, and has considerable influence in the financial and financial world. It is worth noting, however, that he is not downplaying the development of cryptocurrencies, but mainly comments on the Trump administration's approach to setting up strategic reserves. This is not to say that the investment logic of cryptocurrencies is bubbling up, but rather to prevent some speculators from abusing the rarity of Bitcoin with only 21 million coins as a hype highlight. This is not very familiar with the author $MicroStrategy(MSTR.US)$ The way it works is similar while continuing to look at the price of Bitcoin.

However, after the above remarks, the enthusiasm for the Trump deal has also waned, and the focus of the market is now more focused on the Fed meeting on December 18, while there is a good chance of a 0.25pc rate cut on December 18, the future economic outlook and the scope for a fall in interest rates remain. The stance of Fed officials and their views on the new government will be the focus of the market. Especially with regard to the economic outlook, the relevant comments are likely to affect the performance of high-risk asset prices, especially cryptocurrencies that have been hyped recently.

(Source: CME FedWatch 11 December 2024)
(Source: CME FedWatch 11 December 2024)

(Source: CME FedWatch 11 December 2024)

Although the direction and practice of strategic reserves are challenged, the practices of institutions that accumulate Bitcoin in the short term should not change much in the short term, which will benefit the overall performance of the Bitcoin price. This will further benefit the performance of cryptocurrencies with better regulatory measures coming into effect next year. You can refer to the following institutions for the latest views on the market.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis and Price Prediction

On deployments of the two major cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum, authors still recommend looking at the perspective of technical analysis, including short and mid-long lines. Here's what current writers think about Bitcoin.

On the lunar chart, Bitcoin has formed a distinct “cup handle” shape. Please note that this is mainly from the lunar line chart and should only be used as a reference for medium-long line targets and is not suitable as a reference target for short line buying and selling. From the chart above, the bottom of the previous round is around $16000, and the 2021 high at $69,000, measured by upside, is expected to challenge $122,000.

Short Line Operation Strategy

As for short line operations, it is more appropriate to judge with a daily chart. From the above chart, Bitcoin price has fallen from highs but is still in an ascending triangle pattern, which is a situation to change. From the point of view of bearish trading, as long as the market continues to stay steady on the short-term upward trajectory above $95000 levels above the $95000 level, a breakout can still be expected, coupled with recent large-cap coordination, the short line should not be too depressing. If the BTC price is expected to break through the $0.1 million mark again, the benchmark price falls back after the November 22 high of $99800. The first point on the upward trajectory, namely the November 26 low of $90742, could see a rise of $108,858.

Bitcoin Trend Analysis Forecast for November 2024

Last published on 7 November”New Trend in Trump Trading After the Election” Afterward, the mood in the cryptocurrency market maintained a bullish momentum. Various messages are fueling the cryptocurrency frenzy, including the rise of crypto influencer Musk in the Trump election, the new government's support and regulation of cryptocurrencies, and the reluctance of many institutions to buy cryptocurrencies.

Recent $ Bitcoin (BTC.CC) $ More words mean the $0.1 million mark (actual at the time of writing) $ Bitcoin Reference Rate Mainstream (BTCMain.us) $ (It has risen slightly above $0.1 million). This time we will try to understand the situation first and then go to learn Bitcoin analysis.

How to See Bitcoin Analysis Conceptual Stocks

Bitcoin's conceptual stock movement appears to be fragmented during this time as Bitcoin Sword points to $0.1 million, while $ Ether (ETH.CC) $ AND SOME ALTCOINS HIT THE BULLISH PHASE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TRANSACTION, CAUSING RELATED CONCEPTS TO THE STOCK TO FLAME. Mentioned in Bitcoin Analysis $Coinbase(COIN.US)$ 、 $MicroStrategy(MSTR.US)$ 、 $MARA Holdings(MARA.US)$ It also followed a rise in sentiment. The MSTR was the most explosive, driven by a sharp rise in the price of Bitcoin in Huitun, and companies issued debt to increase Bitcoin, fuelling the whole stock fire. MSTR's share price rose from a pre-election low of $220.82 to a high of $543 on November 21, accumulating a cumulative gain of circa 146%; the dual-leveraged ETFs MSTX and MSTU also rose by 429% and 407%, respectively. The explosive behavior is also causing various companies, including those listed in US stocks and Hong Kong, to start implementing MSTR's operating model, which is also the main reason why Bitcoin prices are particularly strong after the election.

Take a look at Bitcoin's prospects, but hedge by doing a blank MSTR, as Citron Research posts on social platform X. The news caused the share price to bounce back after hitting highs last night, and the performance of related concept stocks was also weaker than cryptocurrencies. The authors believe that the main focus is on asset quality issues, with Bitcoin mainly related to supply-side tension, but stocks will take into account market earnings, profitability and business model factors. The reason why Bitcoin prices are supporting share price gains is not solid. The situation also shows that these stocks have risen much higher than cryptocurrencies, and the current short-term exaggerated adjustment is also unpalatable.

The concept that stocks are currently dealing with is “non-systemic risk” (simply a stock's operational risk), which is highly risky to operate in the short term. For the time being, it is recommended to keep an eye on cryptocurrencies.

MACROANALYSIS OF BITCOIN ANALYSIS

The sound of supported digital assets after Red Sweep is amplified. Many bills on cryptocurrencies or digital assets have been proposed this month that focus on Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. Considering the rarity of Bitcoin, there is only a limited supply of 21 million coins worldwide, which is the main factor that stimulates the BTC sword to 0.1 million. During this time in the new US administration, it is expected that the market will still be more sensitive to news about cryptocurrencies.

KEEP IN MIND THAT BITCOIN HAS A LIMITED SUPPLY, BUT WHEN IT COMES TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIGITAL ASSETS AND WEB3.0, IT IS DIFFICULT FOR BITCOIN TO SUPPORT AN ENTIRE DIGITAL ASSET ALONE. While the limit advantage supports price stability, the app's performance is heavily discounted, such as the “Transaction Per Second Volume” that is often said in the coin circle. IF YOU WANT TO DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIGITAL ASSETS, THE DEMAND FOR ETHEREUM AND SOME ALT-COINS WILL RESURFACE.

Finally, I would like to add that while there is no cap on the supply of Ethereum, the future supply is still limited under the new consensus mechanism “Proof of stake”. When the demand for digital assets increases, it also leads to a shortage of demand, which is why ETH has been falling behind again recently.

BITCOIN ANALYSIS AND ETHEREUM VIEWS

According to the authors, in the current bullish atmosphere, it is more embarrassing for Bitcoin to operate near the $0.1 million level. If you are going to buy Bitcoin, it is better to invest in a medium-long line by slowly collecting Tuen Coins. Considering that Bitcoin is traded with 0.0003 as the smallest unit, the cryptocurrency itself is conducive to bet collection, coupled with Bitcoin's unique rarity performance support, which basically balances entry risk in a stable manner, but be prepared for a long line investment mindset.

In short line deployments, individuals are more inclined to deal with Bitcoin using technical analysis, while paying more attention to the performance of ETH, mainly considering the high volatility of ETH. While it doesn't look like BTC keeps hitting all-time highs, it's more important to find resistance and support positions easily.

Technical Analysis Perspectives

Bitcoin Technology Analysis Perspectives

(As of November 22, around 1500)

Bitcoin has been too strong recently, plus it has reached historic highs, so the next resistance level or target price cannot be found on the daily chart. Support the position position sees a 10-antenna or short-term bullish track near the $92400 level to the left. Honestly, the reference doesn't make much sense.

On the lunar chart, a “Cup &Handle” pattern has appeared on the chart since Bitcoin broke through historic highs. Reference the bottom of the past round is around $16000, and the 2021 high at 69000, measured gains, are expected to challenge $122,000.

Please note that the above view is based on the monthly chart, and the error in the short term can be very large and this target price should not be over-dependent. This is also the reason why buying Bitcoin is treated with a Tuen Coin attitude.

Ether Technical Analysis Perspectives

As for Ethereum, the author thinks it is possible to view the hour chart directly as a deployment. After mentioning Ethereum at $3400 in the last article, the price dropped slightly to near $3000. It can be seen from the chart above that the price has only retraced the upside of 0.382, and then has recovered steadily recently. If it breaks above the previous high of $3442, it is confirmed that a healthy adjustment has been completed and regained momentum.

From a short-term perspective, it is easier to buy ETH to stop the erosion and target price. The earlier crossbar area above the level around 3200 serves as a reference support position, trading in a bearish position if it does not fall through. If it breaks above $3442, the next target spending measure is forecast to increase, 3442-3014 = 428, 428+3442 = $3870, which is another peak of the late-May rebound this year.

Bitcoin analysis is over, so how to trade?

Futu Securities provides virtual asset trading services for Hong Kong certificated institutions to trade cryptocurrencies, cryptocurrency futures ETFs, futures ETFs and related securities in one place. Futu currently supports Bitcoin and Ethereum trading. More hot cryptocurrencies will continue to grow, please note. Click the below image to learn more.

Finally, in addition to trading cryptocurrencies directly, investors can also invest directly in cryptocurrencies by leveraging ETFs in the stock market.

Bitcoin: $CSOP Bitcoin Futures ETF(03066.HK)$ $Bosera HashKey Bitcoin ETF(03008.HK)$ $ChinaAMC Bitcoin ETF(03042.HK)$ $Harvest Bitcoin Spot ETF(03439.HK)$

Ether: $CSOP Ether Futures ETF(03068.HK)$ $Bosera HashKey Ether ETF(03009.HK)$ $Harvest Ether Spot ETF(03179.HK)$ $ChinaAMC Ether ETF(03046.HK)$

Empty Bitcoin: $CSOP Bitcoin Futures Daily (-1x) Inverse Product(07376.HK)$

  • Author Information

    Tam Chi Lok

    Chief Analyst of Futu Securities

    CE No.CentralCode: AVJ390

    (The author is a licensee of the Securities and Exchange Commission and its affiliates do not have any financial interest in the Proposed Share Issuer)

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